13 November 2024, Hoofddorp, NL – A new study released today by Federal Express Corporation, the world’s largest express transportation company, forecasts that parcel carriers will collectively distribute 6.2bn shipments across Europe between October and December 2024, 9% more than in the same period in 2023.
The independent study was conducted by Effigy Consulting, which analysed its courier, express and parcels (CEP) database with 500,000 data points on more than 300 carriers in 41 countries.The data marks a significant increase on the European figures for 2023 of 5.7bn parcels.
The growth has been driven by a rise in e-commerce, with nearly 70% (4.2bn) of shipments expected to go directly to consumers. The Peak season, which includes Black Friday and the run-up to the festive holidays, is a critical time for European retailers and manufacturers. Around 30% of all volume for 2023 was delivered in the last three months of the year, which highlights the importance of the so-called ‘golden quarter’, seven percentage points higher than the average for the three other quarters.
Shipping between businesses also spikes in the Peak season, when stores are restocked, and venues prepare for their busiest season. Just under a fifth (19.5%) of activity is forecast to be business-to-business shipments, with almost another tenth (8%) being consumer-to-consumer shipments as gifts are sent to friends and families across the continent. The remaining couple of percent is consumer-to-business shipments.
Wouter Roels, Regional President of Europe at FedEx commented: “Peak season is a critical time for the logistics sector and the countless businesses that we support. This year is expected to be the biggest since the pandemic for parcel deliveries, reflecting the strength of European ecommerce.
“Shipping across continents and countries is crucial to trade and growth, with this ‘golden quarter’ representing the difference between profit and loss for retailers and businesses. Alongside our customers, we’ve been preparing to ensure we make this Peak a success.”
To illustrate the scale of the Peak, if laid end to end the parcels would stretch 1.15 million miles, enough to stretch to the moon and back twice, with plenty of parcels to spare. The total weight of goods transported across Europe this Peak will be almost 7.5m tonnes, which equates to around 15 kg for every person living in the EU and the UK.
The countries with the highest volume of deliveries during this Peak season are expected to be the UK (1.3bn) and Germany (1.1bn), followed by France with just over half a billion (524m), with an average of 12 parcels delivered for every person in the UK and EU during the three-month period.
Europe is forecast to import more goods from outside the continent than it exports, with almost 200 million shipments coming in from for instance China and the USA compared to 75 million going out. However, almost half a billion of the parcels shipped this Peak season in Europe are expected to be exports, with European based businesses shipping nearly 500 million parcels to other countries both inside and outside the EU.
Roels continued: “This study also shows that Europe’s role as an exporting region should not be overlooked, highlighting the importance of having excellent intercontinental air and intra-European air and road logistics networks. At FedEx, we also leverage the data flowing through our physical networks to support businesses through Peak – with each package scanned 20-25 times and capabilities to harness this data for monitoring and critical interventions.”
Table one: European Peak deliveries by sender and recipient
Delivery type | October to December predicted volume |
Business to consumer | 4,284,943,000 |
Business to business | 1,215,763,000 |
Consumer to consumer | 486,200,000 |
Consumer to business | 236,735,000 |
Table two: European exports by destination
Destination | October to December predicted volume |
Other EU countries (e.g. FR to DE) | 340,260,000 |
Non-EU Europe (e.g. FR to UK) | 65,930,000 |
Rest of world (e.g. FR to US) | 75,470,000 |
Table three: European imports from outside the EU
Source of imports | October to December predicted volume |
Rest of world (e.g. US to FR) | 191,760,000 |
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About Federal Express Corporation
Federal Express Corporation is the world’s largest express transportation company, providing fast and reliable delivery to more than 220 countries and territories. Federal Express Corporation uses a global air-and-ground network to speed delivery of time-sensitive shipments by a definite time and date.
About Effigy Consulting
Effigy Consulting is a global consulting firm, leader in the Courier, Express and Parcel (CEP) industry. Connected to 500,000 data points on more than 300 carriers in 41 countries, Effigy Consulting is providing premium Data analytics, Reports and Market studies for world-class customers among the industry.
About the research
Research undertaken by Effigy Consulting, commissioned by Federal Express Corporation, September - October 2024. All figures (except 2023) are forecasts. Volume of a package represents 0.7839 cubic foot (0.0222 m3).